Short version: Use #FOMO (fear of missing out). Call them names (“you VOTER!”). Question their level of commitment. Promise to check up on them.

Hey, blog-reading friends. Your polling place is where all the cool kids are going to be on today. What’s your plan?

We’ll check back with you to see how you did.

FIND YOUR POLLING PLACE HERE

<><><>

If you are receiving this email it is because I consider you a friend or I greatly respect you and your work.

I feel as a nation we are facing two very dangerous curves that if not checked will create a crush with devastating long term consequences. The first we are addressing with #SocialDistancing.

This is helping us to not overwhelm our healthcare system, limit contagion and allow our healthcare workers to methodically help those in need.

The second curve, the one we are not addressing, is the current blow to our economic system and our own financial lives. Obviously, there are some businesses and industries that will have a difficult time no matter what. If you are in the travel industry or work in a restaurant or hospitality, you will have to wait for a recovery. However, in my colleagues’ clients, I am seeing a lot of people ceasing to do business out of fear or just holding to see “where this is going.” I am comparatively insulated from this, unlike many working Americans who are living completely check to check. I was raised in extreme abject poverty but also graduated from the London School of Economics, spending a full year studying the 1929 global economic crisis––the Great Depression.

Here is the issue. If we fall into the category of businesses that are “holding off” out of fear––the majority––I am exceedingly nervous about the domino effect we are setting up economically. If we all shut down––even though most of us offer products and services, remotely deliverable, that are still vitally needed by all––we shut down the economic system. If our economic system shuts down, the long term effects of this will have severe, even longer-lasting effects on our physical and mental health. Many will perish if there is a global economic crisis, as they did during The Great Depression. We cannot wait for our national governments or hope that a stimulus package will solve this.

We must do what we can, together, NOW. The economy is a human health issue.

This weekend David Paull, CEO of Engagious, posted across his social media his thoughts about turning the “economic curve.” The writer Michael Lewis did an interview on CNN echoing the same. If we want to take our lives into our own hands we need to make #DoBusiness relevant in the world as a message, share what is working, discourage paralysis created by fear, and ensure we all––as a collective––prevent an economic crush that could destroy lives. This is the most, yet relatively unexpressed, truth in the world right now. Obviously, supermarkets and toilet paper manufacturers do not need to be “holding” in their efforts to do business. Many of us are still offering vital products and services that we all need, but are holding out of fear. Let’s STOP holding and turn the curve, freezing the domino effect that comes from holding––by DOING EVEN MORE BUSINESS REMOTELY––for all of us who can. The world must go on, the world will go on and, as it does go on, commerce needs to go on––to save lives and prevent any more suffering. We need to work together––#DoBusiness––to stop the domino effect.

You can help by SPREADING #DoBusiness

1- POST the #DoBusiness graphics below (3 JPEGs attached) to your social media. Pin them to the top of your feed and make them your cover pages.

2- Post these once a day and then, with the below images, share content that expresses your thoughts in your field, in your life, and what you are doing to TURN THE ECONOMIC CURVE.

3- Make the sentiment of us continuing to provide each other the vital products and services we still all need––#DoBusiness––as popular a notion as #SocialDistancing so that we can all start addressing the second curve that is equally vital to our global physical and psychological well being.

Here are three assets for Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and LinkedIn created by me and a local industrial designer.

PLEASE COPY/SAVE THEM AND POST URGENTLY REPETITIVELY AND EXHAUSTIVELY––AND PUSH OUT TO YOUR NETWORKS––ASKING THEM TO POST REPETITIVELY AND EXHAUSTIVELY.

To download: Right-Click > Save Image As…

Our team was in Saginaw, Michigan, last week, with ten respondents who voted for Obama in 2012 and then Trump in 2016. What we uncovered was surprising, and not surprising. Surprising in relation to typical media coverage. But not really surprising, because it tracks with what we’ve been hearing in our past swing voter groups.

Here are some highlights:

Buyer’s remorse? Nope. They would vote for Trump over Hillary all over again.

But they voted for Obama. Yes, they did. But in a hypothetical (constitutionally impossible) matchup between Obama and Trump, eight of them would vote for Trump.

Are they better off than they were four years ago? Yes. The economy is booming, and they are personally seeing the benefits. They like what the president is doing on trade, healthcare, and immigration.

Would a recession erode their support? They don’t think there’s going to be a recession in the next year, but it wouldn’t matter, they’ll still support the president.

But don’t they watch the news? They don’t trust mainstream media coverage of what’s going on.

So, impeachment . . . A waste of time and a big waste of money. They want the attention to be on them and their needs, and they want government resources (their tax dollars) spent on America. In a word: they resent it. (“Resent” is an . . . interesting emotion, but we’re skipping the psychology sidebar in this post.) (Maybe just a footnote.[1])

Anybody exciting on the Democratic side? Not really. They only really recognized three of the 10 we showed them. When we dial tested segments from the last debate, Andrew #Yang rated highest while talking about the importance of early childhood education. Despite this group’s general disinterest with the candidates, they had a lot of positive comments about this one segment. See that here: https://youtu.be/1EviMd22Ms8

They want to keep their health insurance. Most of them (eight of 10) said they can’t vote for a candidate who supports Medicare for All.

For the full report go here; for clips and commentary go here. 

[1] See Ressentiment, Max Scheler; also https://divinity.uchicago.edu/sightings/articles/whats-ressentiment-got-do-it

Economists need to join forces with the English majors, according to economist (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller.

The economy is made up of living people, with stories, emotions, and ideas. Economics needs humanities, because economics isn’t worth much without understanding what it is to be human.

At BX2019, the international behavioral science conference last month in London (yes, we were there), Shiller talked about “narrative economics,” the subject and title of his latest book, released this month.

The humanities, says Shiller, are “relevant to understanding the real and human phenomenon of the economy, and its sudden and surprising changes.”

The art of narrative economics can advance the science of economics, Shiller says: What’s going on, what narratives do people think they are living under? What are the people in business saying? How about the taxi drivers? “To understand a complex economy, we have to take into account many conflicting popular narratives and ideas relevant to economic decisions, whether the ideas are valid or fallacious.”

“Ultimately it isn’t about the math. It’s about the stories economics tells about our lives.”

If economists would team up with experts in other disciplines, they could revolutionize their field. For instance, with literature. Appreciating great novels could improve economic models, because novels “bring us close to the essence of human experience.”

And history. Shiller says it was a 1931 book about the run-up to the 1929 stock market crash that showed him that “this period’s history of rapid-fire contagious narratives somehow contributed to the changing spirit of the times.” The trajectory of the economy seemed to be tied to the narratives of the period; but these narratives never entered economists’ mathematical models.

Shiller wants to change that.

Read his book: Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral & Drive Major Economic Events.

Here’s a collaboration of a literature scholar and an economist: Cents and Sensibility, by Gary Saul Morson and Morton Schapiro.

Why we still need English majors (be an interesting person—read great books!).

What economists can learn from English majors.

The value of the humanities in writing code.

These voters cited a common reason for swinging: a desire for change.

Our eight Erie participants all voted for Obama in 2012, and then switched to Trump in 2016. They voted for Obama because they wanted expanded health care, more fairness, and something different from George W. Bush.

“I didn’t like Bush at all, I thought he did a terrible job,” said one respondent, “and I had hopes that Obama would do better.”

When the change didn’t come after four years of Obama, these change voters . . . stuck with Obama. “In the first four years I thought it was just a leftover from Bush, so I thought, he’s going to make a difference, he’s going to continue doing more things. Which in fact I do not think he did.”

By 2016 they were ready for another change. Trump was different, they said. He wasn’t a typical politician. He wasn’t going to be a pushover with leaders of other nations. He’s willing to be an American, and he wants to take care of America first.

Are they ready to swing to a new partner in 2020? Not really.

“I’m an issue voter,” a respondent said, “and I don’t see it meriting change at this point. When I changed my vote, I gave him eight years.”

Aren’t they tired of Trump’s antics? Not really.

“Sensation sells,” said one. “And there are changes that are happening,” added another: Jobs. Record low unemployment. Rising wages. Good changes in the economy.

But they would like for someone to take away his Twitter account.

Erie swing voters told us their top issues were the economy (they want jobs to come back from Mexico and China), health care, immigration (still waiting for The Wall), education (it really needs improvement, and abortion (they mostly favor restrictions).

They generally like what Trump has done on their top issues, and they’re willing to give him four more years to enact all the changes he promised.

Erie’s part of the Rust Belt, hard hit by the loss of manufacturing jobs. So we asked these voters what they thought of Trump’s trade deal renegotiations and tariffs.

Respondents said they’re hopeful that his trade policy will bring back jobs. It’s too early to tell if it’s working, but they’re willing to wait.

“It kind of sucks while you’re budgeting, but when you buy the car it feels good,” one respondent said. “It’s going to hurt short term, but in the long run it’s going to be better.”

Our voters said they care about climate change and pollution—“We need to take it seriously”—but it’s not a top-five issue.

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were the most recognizable faces on the Democratic side, with Elizabeth Warren, Beto O’Rourke, and Kamala Harris rounding out the top tier.

What advice do they have for Democrats considering impeachment? “If you want him out you have to beat him. He’s the best-looking food on the buffet. You’ve got to put out something that’s better.”

Did we leave you wanting more? For video, scores, and a great time the full report, go here.

Fun facts about me: I love traveling and having adventures all around the world or in different neighborhoods of New York City. One of my favorite classes that I’ve taken in college is Cultural Psychology because I think it’s fascinating to learn about how different cultures shape who we are as well as gain more empathy and understanding of people who do not come from the same background as I do. I have traveled to 25 countries, and I hope I can live abroad at some point in my life!

I am from New York City and go to college at Haverford. I am an Economics major and psychology minor. I’m also captain of the Varsity Fencing team.

They say playing hard to get can increase attraction and desire. Don’t chase—make them run after you.

Is that what swing voters are doing? Because politicians and media outlets want them really bad. Does this news narrative resonate with them? Do they realize how important this legislation is for them? Don’t they realize that I am the candidate they’re looking for? ARE THEY LISTENING DO THEY LIKE ME/US?

But as we’ve seen now in two focus groups with swing voters, the stories dominating the news cycles aren’t dominating the thinking of our respondents.

Engagious is partnering with Focus Pointe Global to have conversations with swing voters in swing districts across the United States. We conducted the first group March 19 in Appleton, Wisconsin. April 9 we met with a group in Bowling Green, Ohio. Six of them voted for Romney and then Clinton; the other six voted for Obama, and then Trump. (Special thanks to all 12 respondents for sharing their time and insights.)

They don’t view things the same way as media and D.C. elites do. It’s been said in this space before: It’s really important to test messaging outside the Beltway.

The news devotes a lot of space to the crowded field of Democratic presidential candidates—who’s in, who’s thinking about it, who’s the best candidate to beat Trump. About half of our swing voters recognized Joe Biden. They were more comfortable identifying Bernie Sanders, and a lot less comfortable identifying the other 13. They weren’t really excited about any of them, and they weren’t all that impressed by the candidate videos we showed them (Gabbard, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, and Castro). They weren’t that excited in 2016, either. Most of them voted against the other guy.

Swing voters were asked, “If given the choice to vote for either former President Obama or President Trump in Election 2020, who would you vote for?”

They want President Obama back.

What are they interested in? Education. Health care. The opioid epidemic. Veterans. Homelessness. Hunger. Clean energy. How do we know? We asked them what they’d like their tax dollars spent on.

The Mueller Report, which has dominated recent news cycles, doesn’t matter much to them personally.

Despite the high stock market and low unemployment, not one person in the focus group would describe our economy as “booming.” It’s benefiting people at the top, not them. None of the respondents had seen a noticeable increase in wages since Trump took office.

How about NAFTA? Ohio manufacturing was hurt by the original trade deal, yet only one of our swing voters knew that the President had negotiated a replacement. Only five of them knew about the deal he’s negotiating with China.

They definitely want paid family leave, but they didn’t agree on who should do the paying for the leaving.

They are largely happy with their health insurance, and they feel secure in case of a medical emergency, though they feel that other Americans would have a problem with surprise medical expenses. They’d rather pay higher premiums for more coverage than lower premiums for less coverage. And they want to know how much their medical treatments will cost before the receive them. More transparency, please.

Speaking of medicine, they hadn’t heard much about Medicare for All.

Or the Green New Deal. What they know about it, they view unfavorably. But they do want the President to take climate change more seriously. They strongly disagree with rolling back climate change regulations. They’d really like the President to call for ramping up private-sector innovation in clean energy to help reduce carbon emissions. They’re meh on paying higher electric bills, and slightly less meh on a carbon tax.

Want more? Get the full report and view highlight videos on our Swing Voter Insights page.

Our next swing-voter group will be May 6, in Sioux City, Iowa.

Alone?

What would it take to get you to take public transportation, or bike, or walk?

The city of Durham, North Carolina, found out. City officials have good reasons to encourage people to move to alternative transportation: Traffic. Pollution. Carbon emissions. Valuable downtown real estate eaten up by parking (and costing $24,000 a spot to build).

But hey, there are also good reasons to eat healthy, give up smoking, exercise daily, be a little kinder. . . . Information by itself isn’t always enough to modify behavior. Old habits die hard.

The city of Durham partnered with behavioral science researchers at Duke University to test ways to nudge downtown commuters out of old habits—to use alternatives to solo driving.

They tested 1500 workers over six months. One group of participants received personalized route maps that showed bike, bus, and walking routes and times, and included potential benefits, like weight loss and gas money savings. The city also added a bus lottery for some of its employees: ride the bus, and be eligible for a $163 weekly cash prize.

Among those who received the personalized map, solo driving was 12 percent lower than those who didn’t. It dropped 16 percent among those who received a map and took transit for prizes.

Carrots, no sticks. (Maybe carrot sticks, but that’s it.)

Read about it here.

And partly because stuff is always separate from our identities, even when we’re really attached to it. Experiences, on the other hand, become a part of us, and connect us with other people. Leading to greater happiness.

According to researchers, experiences are harder to compare objectively than, say, diamond carats, and thus may be less likely to cause us to feel malevolent over the good fortune of others (aka envy).

The same applies to your business: the experience your customer has with your brand trumps the product you deliver. All the more reason to keep Customer Experience top of mind.

Something to think about this holiday season–and the rest of the year. Read more here.

The author of Messy talks about decluttering

Another plug for experiences rather than stuff: they don’t pile up.

Home organization guru Marie Kondo is a worldwide celebrity, mainly for helping people throw things away. Economist Tim Harford and money editor Bourree Lam explain why she’s so revolutionary (besides helping people control their stuff): she overcomes cognitive biases, like status quo bias, sunk-cost fallacy, and loss aversion.

For instance, she breaks the status quo bias of “the stuff stays because I don’t have a reason to get rid of it” by deftly substituting a new status quo: “Everything goes unless I can think of a really good reason to keep it.” See here and here for more.
 

But of course we’re still going to buy stuff
 

Here are a couple of behavioral science shopping guides to minimize the damage: Behavioral Economists Guide to Buying Presents and  How to Enjoy (and Survive) The Holidays.

And the behavioral science tricks that marketers wield against us (even though awareness doesn’t guarantee immunity).