We see it time and again. Critical policy messages that miss the mark.  The reason is simple: they were vetted with the wrong people.

If you are based in the Washington, DC area, whether you’re a corporation, association, think tank, or politician, here’s some free advice: Test Your Message Outside the Beltway.

We do policy message testing for a living.

➤ Please reach out- we’d love to help.

That’s what we’ve been telling our clients for nearly two decades. And even though they know that—of course they know that—clients are always surprised at what outside-the-Beltway testing turns up.

Here’s why it matters:

➤Average Americans Only Consume a “Trickle” of News

Most people outside the Washington metro area are not immersed in the details of your issues—sometimes they’ve never even heard of the issues. We’ve validated this again and again through our Swing Voter Project, which taken us to swing states every month for the last 18 month. Average Americans by and large get their news is small doses from LOCAL SOURCES. Yes, some watch cable news  but are almost as likely to get their news from Facebook.

➤Average Americans are Fixated on Themselves

This is not to imply that they don’t care about other people or the world as a whole. It simply means that while trying to pay their bills and care for their family, they don’t have the LUXURY of immersing themselves in DC news.

Some of them are working multiple jobs.
Some of them are a health crisis away from bankruptcy.
Some of them are working 18 hour days to keep the family farm afloat.
Some of them are caring for a chronically ill family member.

Their challenges are real and immediate.  

➤Validate That Your Policy Messages Are Connecting

And the best way to do that is to test your messages with them. Get in their heads. See their reactions. Hear their thoughts. Then refine based on what you’ve learned.

Again, our clients know all this. But they still—regularly—say things like, “I did not expect that one to tank!”; “I am really surprised none of the respondents have heard of that.”; “I didn’t realize our language was so full of jargon until this dial test.”

And we especially like: “Good thing we tested this!”

We do policy message testing for a living.

➤ Please reach out- we’d love to help.

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To demonstrate how different Washington, D.C. is from other parts of the country, here are some facts and comparisons:

—Bigger salaries: highest per capita income in the country ($75,569; the national average is $49,571)[1] with an annual growth rate of 4.5% (vs. 3.6% national average)[2]

—Educated: 55% of the population 25 years or older has at least a bachelor’s degree (29.3% nationally);[3] 31% have an advanced degree (11.2% nationally)[4]

—Expensive housing: median value of a house is $460,700 ($163,900 nationally)

—Lower rate of home ownership: 40.4% own their own homes (63.7% nationally)

—High crime: 6,408.6 crimes per 100,000 people (3,295.0 nationally)[5]

[1] http://www.courant.com/business/hc-per-capita-income-connecticut-20170328-story.html
[2] https://wtop.com/business-finance/2017/03/dc-per-capita-income-25-percent-higher-national-average/
[3] https://www.iowaeconomicdevelopment.com/50states
[4] https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_15_5YR_S1501
[5] https://www.iowaeconomicdevelopment.com/50states

This group of swing voters think the country is in trouble but don’t lay the blame on President Trump. Read this month’s findings to see what they had to say.

Here’s a couple of interesting things this group told us:

President Trump still has their vote — at least 7 of the 9 of them. Only 2 in the group say they would vote for Biden over Trump if the election was held “tomorrow.”

They feel life between now and election day will be chaotic, divided and emotional.

They feel that the demand to “Defund the police” is going too far and could have a negative impact on Biden’s chances.

And they largely want schools to re-open in the fall

View the highlights for yourself: 

Couple of direct takes from this group:

On the pandemic and re-opening the country…

“I believe [scientific experts] should be part of the guidance, but… if we listen to nothing but scientific guidance, we’d be shutting down every business in the country.”

On social unrest and the ramping up of protests in some cities… 

“They (protestors) are still burning buildings. They’re rioting. They’re doing things that aren’t going to bring us together. They’re doing more things that are going to bring us apart.”

➜ Check out all the key findings in our July summary report

Have you noticed consistent trends in each month’s SVP report? You’ll want to read this month’s findings—there’s been a shift. 

Trump’s support among these swing voters has fallen

• • • The country is in chaos, and he’s not bringing order, he’s bringing more conflict.
    • They’re still not crazy about Biden. But they’re more willing to give him a chance.
    • How are they feeling in general? No surprise here—anxious, depressed, frustrated, fearful.

• • • They’re horrified about George Floyd’s death, and they’re supportive of the initial protests; but they think the protests have made their point. And protest violence is causing more division. They want it to stop.
    • They oppose defunding the police, and if Biden supports those efforts, he’ll lose many of their votes.
    • They want a national conversation about race, but they don’t want politicians to lead it.

“Our entire year has been taken away from us,” they said, with the prohibitions on weddings, funerals, and other public gatherings. Meanwhile, thousands are allowed to crowd together for protests. They want consistent pandemic gathering rules.

➜ Like we said, you’re going to want to read the whole thing

Have you noticed consistent trends in each month’s SVP report? You’ll want to read this month’s findings—there’s been a shift. 

Trump’s support among these swing voters has fallen

• • • The country is in chaos, and he’s not bringing order, he’s bringing more conflict.
    • They’re still not crazy about Biden. But they’re more willing to give him a chance.
    • How are they feeling in general? No surprise here—anxious, depressed, frustrated, fearful.

• • • They’re horrified about George Floyd’s death, and they’re supportive of the initial protests; but they think the protests have made their point. And protest violence is causing more division. They want it to stop.
    • They oppose defunding the police, and if Biden supports those efforts, he’ll lose many of their votes.
    • They want a national conversation about race, but they don’t want politicians to lead it.

“Our entire year has been taken away from us,” they said, with the prohibitions on weddings, funerals, and other public gatherings. Meanwhile, thousands are allowed to crowd together for protests. They want consistent pandemic gathering rules.

➜ Like we said, you’re going to want to read the whole thing

Engagious/Focus Pointe Global Swing Voter Project turned to eastern Iowa for May’s research, meeting with swing voters in online focus groups.

︎ For the complete report, go here.   

︎ For video clips, go here.

What’s on their minds? Coronavirus, of course. They say it will be their number one voting issue in November. It’s on our minds, too; and we wanted to know how the pandemic is influencing their thoughts about the presidential race:

• Six of the eight are very likely to vote for Trump again.

• They don’t blame President Trump for the situation we’re in, and for the most part they think he’s doing a decent job in an unprecedented situation. At the same time they are less confident in his leadership, saying they think he’s delegating too much power to the governors.

• Unemployment is high, but they’re not going to hold it against the president. Unless the pandemic intensity recedes, and unemployment doesn’t.

• Trump brought us a great economy once, they said; he can do it again.

• Are they worse off than before COVID-19? Yes. Are they better off than four years ago? Yes. For now, at least, respondents seem to be mentally bracketing the COVID-19 economy.

• That said, they’re more worried about their financial health than their physical health.

• The two respondents who said they are likely to vote for Vice President Biden want him to bring a new outlook to COVID-19. Though the group as a whole is not at all familiar with what Biden plans to do about COVID-19,

• Not one of the respondents feels that Biden’s choice of running mate would affect their vote.

• The six likely to vote for Trump cited Biden negatives: behavior with women, outbursts on the campaign trail, dishonesty, his length of time in government, doubts about his mental acuity.

• Reopening restaurants, bars and theaters? Respondents support a local approach, with slight support for protestors who demand that their governors allow them to reopen their businesses (but please, wear a mask).

• They’re somewhat uncomfortable with Chinese ownership of Smithfield Foods, the world’s largest pork processor with packing plants in Iowa. (Iowa is America’s top pork producer).

*All Respondents voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Last week, we conducted a virtual focus group made up of 10 swing voters all of whom live in the Canton, Ohio area, and voted for President Obama in 2012 and President Trump in 2016.

Key Takeaways from the Canton, Ohio swing voter group:

• Some advice for the president:  Take some cues from Governor DeWine. They’re happy with how the Ohio governor is handling the crisis, giving him high marks for taking the problem seriously early on, and being decisive, and apolitical. They’d like the president to follow suit.
• Some of the shine has faded but he’s still their pick: they think the president’s initial response to the coronavirus crisis has made it harder to contain the virus, but overall, they still approve of how he has handle the crisis, and plan to stick with him.
• Has their confidence in Trump taken a hit? The short answer is yes. Half of our group has lower confidence in the president as a leader now then they did three months ago.
• What do they worry about the most right now? It was even split between their financial health and their physical health.
• No rush to normalcy: At least half of the group said they’d be willing to wait until August or September to return to more normal activities, with some indicating that they’d need to have several conditions in place before they’d go back.
• WWBD (What would Biden do?) Most of the group were not familiar with the Democratic challenger’s comments on the coronavirus crisis or what he would do different than what Trump is doing.
• Pro or against protesting? Generally against those protesting the stay-at-home restrictions and business closures.
• And what about suspending immigration? Unanimously in support of the president suspending immigration into the US due to the coronavirus crisis.

Next month, we will NOT be heading to Davenport, Iowa, but we will virtually meet with a new set of swing voters who live there. Stay safe and well.

(This most recent group took place over a week ago- which feels like a lifetime ago with the new ‘social distancing guidelines. Be assured we did not hold this group after the current guidelines went into place. Nor would we.)

Engagious traveled to Edina, Minnesota, to meet with swing voters: ten respondents who voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016, and one respondent who voted for Romney in 2012 and Clinton in 2016.

Key Takeaways:

• Top worries: Cost of health care; immigration; coronavirus (and why doesn’t the president seem more concerned about it?).

• Trump or Biden? 8-3 Trump.

• Trump or Bernie? 8-3 Trump.

• Why Trump: Good economy; immigration; he’s doing a good job for the country—let’s stay the course.

• Why Biden: Time for a change. He would fix the lack of diplomacy in our country.

• Why Bernie: He’s been consistent with his positions, and he’s trustworthy. Medicare for all. He was robbed in 2016, and “deserves his chance.”

• This is Minnesota. What if Biden or Bernie put Senator Klobuchar on the ticket? It wouldn’t shift any of their votes.

• 2016 do-over: Trump over Hillary 10-1. (they would all vote the same as they did in 2016)

• Obama vs. Trump hypothetical: 7-4 Trump. (3 of the Trump voters would choose Obama over trump. The one Clinton voter would also pick Obama.)

• They’re happy about the economy, but a coronavirus-triggered recession could dampen their enthusiasm. Although they say they wouldn’t blame the president for it.

• Should President Trump pressure drug companies during the coronavirus crisis? It’s probably okay to lean on them to come up with a vaccine, respondents said, but they’d be wary of the government requiring that drug companies provide free or deeply discounted drugs to treat coronavirus—it would set a bad precedent.

• Should we get rid of Trump so we can get back to our normal political civility? Civil like when Vice President Aaron Burr killed former Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton? Respondents said this question sounds like a Democratic political strategy to beat Trump rather than an authentic goal.

Next month we will be talking to swing voters in Ohio.

It’s been a recurring theme with swing voters these past months, with slight variations:

Most would vote for Trump again; most of them would vote for him over Obama; they like what Trump is doing with the economy; they like that he won’t let other countries push us around.

There’s some embarrassment over his bluster, some fatigue with his drama, some anger that he hasn’t built The Wall yet; but they are mostly pleased with the job he’s done, and think he should be given another four years to keep doing it.

Wilkes-Barre swing voters’ thoughts on the top issues:

Top issues: Health care, immigration, jobs

Iran: It was right to target General Soleimani, but war with Iran would erode support for Trump.

Impeachment: Please stop wasting Americans’ time and money.

Economy: Better off than four years ago.

Trade: Tariffs better not raise prices.

Democratic presidential hopefuls: Be moderate with your policy positions.

Environment: Regulation rollbacks by Trump are very troubling.

What they wish America would resolve for 2020: To be kind.

For video highlights, go HERE

Our team was in Saginaw, Michigan, last week, with ten respondents who voted for Obama in 2012 and then Trump in 2016. What we uncovered was surprising, and not surprising. Surprising in relation to typical media coverage. But not really surprising, because it tracks with what we’ve been hearing in our past swing voter groups.

Here are some highlights:

Buyer’s remorse? Nope. They would vote for Trump over Hillary all over again.

But they voted for Obama. Yes, they did. But in a hypothetical (constitutionally impossible) matchup between Obama and Trump, eight of them would vote for Trump.

Are they better off than they were four years ago? Yes. The economy is booming, and they are personally seeing the benefits. They like what the president is doing on trade, healthcare, and immigration.

Would a recession erode their support? They don’t think there’s going to be a recession in the next year, but it wouldn’t matter, they’ll still support the president.

But don’t they watch the news? They don’t trust mainstream media coverage of what’s going on.

So, impeachment . . . A waste of time and a big waste of money. They want the attention to be on them and their needs, and they want government resources (their tax dollars) spent on America. In a word: they resent it. (“Resent” is an . . . interesting emotion, but we’re skipping the psychology sidebar in this post.) (Maybe just a footnote.[1])

Anybody exciting on the Democratic side? Not really. They only really recognized three of the 10 we showed them. When we dial tested segments from the last debate, Andrew #Yang rated highest while talking about the importance of early childhood education. Despite this group’s general disinterest with the candidates, they had a lot of positive comments about this one segment. See that here: https://youtu.be/1EviMd22Ms8

They want to keep their health insurance. Most of them (eight of 10) said they can’t vote for a candidate who supports Medicare for All.

For the full report go here; for clips and commentary go here. 

[1] See Ressentiment, Max Scheler; also https://divinity.uchicago.edu/sightings/articles/whats-ressentiment-got-do-it