Election 2020 | What Makes Voters Swing?

10 Jun Election 2020 | What Makes Voters Swing?

We headed to Erie, Pennsylvania, for our latest meet-up with swing voters (part of our ongoing project with partner Focus Pointe Global).

These voters cited a common reason for swinging: a desire for change.

Our eight Erie participants all voted for Obama in 2012, and then switched to Trump in 2016. They voted for Obama because they wanted expanded health care, more fairness, and something different from George W. Bush.

“I didn’t like Bush at all, I thought he did a terrible job,” said one respondent, “and I had hopes that Obama would do better.”

When the change didn’t come after four years of Obama, these change voters . . . stuck with Obama. “In the first four years I thought it was just a leftover from Bush, so I thought, he’s going to make a difference, he’s going to continue doing more things. Which in fact I do not think he did.”

By 2016 they were ready for another change. Trump was different, they said. He wasn’t a typical politician. He wasn’t going to be a pushover with leaders of other nations. He’s willing to be an American, and he wants to take care of America first.

Are they ready to swing to a new partner in 2020? Not really.

“I’m an issue voter,” a respondent said, “and I don’t see it meriting change at this point. When I changed my vote, I gave him eight years.”

Aren’t they tired of Trump’s antics? Not really.

“Sensation sells,” said one. “And there are changes that are happening,” added another: Jobs. Record low unemployment. Rising wages. Good changes in the economy.

But they would like for someone to take away his Twitter account.

Erie swing voters told us their top issues were the economy (they want jobs to come back from Mexico and China), health care, immigration (still waiting for The Wall), education (it really needs improvement, and abortion (they mostly favor restrictions).

They generally like what Trump has done on their top issues, and they’re willing to give him four more years to enact all the changes he promised.

Erie’s part of the Rust Belt, hard hit by the loss of manufacturing jobs. So we asked these voters what they thought of Trump’s trade deal renegotiations and tariffs.

Respondents said they’re hopeful that his trade policy will bring back jobs. It’s too early to tell if it’s working, but they’re willing to wait.

“It kind of sucks while you’re budgeting, but when you buy the car it feels good,” one respondent said. “It’s going to hurt short term, but in the long run it’s going to be better.”

Our voters said they care about climate change and pollution—“We need to take it seriously”—but it’s not a top-five issue.

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were the most recognizable faces on the Democratic side, with Elizabeth Warren, Beto O’Rourke, and Kamala Harris rounding out the top tier.

What advice do they have for Democrats considering impeachment? “If you want him out you have to beat him. He’s the best-looking food on the buffet. You’ve got to put out something that’s better.”

Did we leave you wanting more? For video, scores, and a great time the full report, go here.