13 May Election 2020 | Sioux City, Iowa Swing Voters
Sioux City, IA
May 6, 2019
In our latest episode of “How to Woo and Win a Swing Voter,” there was a plot twist. Maybe you saw it coming:
Swing voters in different segments of the Midwest do not always fall for the same pickup lines.
In Wisconsin, Ohio, and now Iowa, we’ve had conversations with swing voters—people who voted for Obama, and then Trump; or Romney, and then Clinton. And while they’re all flavors of Midwest, we’re learning to distinguish some of the subtler flavor differences.
Engagious is partnering with Focus Pointe Global to hold monthly focus groups in swing districts across the United States. It’s only a couple of hours in an evening, but it’s a way to see the faces and hear the voices of the nebulous and coveted “swing voters.” It’s kind of an exercise in discomfort and vulnerability: They let us pick their brains and share their thoughts with the country; and we (and anyone who follows this project) let them assail our assumptions and biases.
On May 6, in Sioux City, Iowa, Engagious met with 11 swing voters. All 11 respondents voted for Obama in 2012, and Trump in 2016. As in Wisconsin and Ohio, we asked about President Trump, the Mueller report, Democrats running for president, the economy, and other issues in the news. As in Wisconsin and Ohio we heard that what’s really important to the news outlets isn’t always deeply important to the news receivers. They didn’t recognize most of the Democratic candidates for president. They think Congress should move on from the Mueller investigation. They didn’t know about Medicare for All or the Green New Deal.
But there were differences. For instance, in Ohio, most of the respondents voted against “the other guy” in 2016. In Iowa, more than half of the respondents voted for Trump, not against Clinton. In Ohio most of our respondents would vote for Obama in 2020 if the Constitution allowed it. In Iowa all but one of our respondents would vote for Trump over Hillary Clinton, and eight of 11 would take Trump over Barack Obama if there were an election tomorrow and those were the choices.
Unlike Ohio (and Wisconsin), our Iowa swing voters had a longer list of “likes” than complaints about President Trump. Negative press about Trump isn’t going to sway their vote. What will sway it is how the country is doing, and how they personally are doing. They also indicated that far-left policies promoted by Democratic candidates would push them to vote for Trump.
Our Iowa respondents scored 6.7 out of ten that the U.S. is headed in the right direction, but only a 5.2 for Iowa’s direction. Was it a case of “national prosperity isn’t trickling down to the local level”? Maybe. But one respondent said, “I like what Republicans are doing on the national level, but I don’t really like what they’re doing here in Iowa.” So maybe they don’t like Iowa’s leadership. (Hard to say what “right track/wrong track” means to each individual. Economy? Culture? Security? Environment? Something else?)
They didn’t articulate what socialism is, but they don’t want it: “Socialism is going to give us Venezuela.”
As in Ohio, Iowa respondents want President Trump to encourage renewable energy. Wind has been good for Iowa, they observed. And while we usually demand a belief in climate change in order to do something about it, one of our respondents effectively dismissed that notion with this comment: “ I don’t believe that climate change is the big affair that people make it out to be. . . . But I do think Trump should do his best to encourage affordable, sensible, renewable energies.” The other respondents agreed.
Want more? Check the scores and watch the highlights. The drama continues next month, when Engagious travels to Erie, Pennsylvania. What will we find in this former manufacturing and steel powerhouse? Tune in June 3. (Yes, we mixed the sports and telenovela metaphors, and no, we’re not sorry.)
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